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Variance is one of the most discussed and often feared concepts among poker players. Even the most skilled player is not immune to the ups and downs that variance can bring to poker. In this article, we'll explore how variance affects poker and how players can deal with it to achieve long-term success.
What is Variance in Poker?
Variance in poker refers to the fluctuations in results that a player experiences due to the luck factor. Even if a player makes perfect decisions, variance can result in short-term losses. This is because, in poker, the expected value (EV) of a play is a weighted average of the possible outcomes, but what happens on each individual play can diverge significantly from this average.
In poker, variance can affect wins and losses in significant ways. It's common to go through periods of “downswing” (continuous losses) or “upswing” (continuous wins), regardless of the quality of play.
It is crucial to understand that variance is an inevitable part of the game and that managing this aspect can make the difference between a successful player and a player who gives up.
Practical examples
The variance in poker refers to the short-term deviations in the winrate of a player in relation to the expected results. Even if a player wins with a winrate of 8BB/100, it is rare that your winrate is always exactly 8BB/100 over a sample of hands. In other words, this deviation is called the variance.
The larger the sample of hands analyzed, the closer the winrate will be the expected value (Ev). However, as variance is huge in poker, large deviations are common, especially in smaller hand samples, such as less than 50,000 hands.
You can use variance calculators to simulate the calculation of this standard deviation. For example, using Poker Variance Calculator.
Example variance calculation for 100,000 hands and 8BB/100 winrate
In addition, you also have a variance calculation calculator available specifically for tournaments (MTT's and SNG's) — Poker Tournament Variance Simulator.
How to Beat Variance? 🎯
1. Acceptance
Accepting that variance is part of poker is the first step. The downswings and upswings are part of any player's experience. By understanding this, you can focus on what's within your power: studying, doing warm-ups before sessions and maintaining self-knowledge.
2. Perseverance
To mitigate the effects of variance, you can:
- Increase your winrate: study more and improve your strategy.
- Increase the volume of play: play more hands so that the results are closer to the expected average.
How to Deal with Variance?
Managing the Bankroll Effectively
It is essential to play within your financial limits. Participating in games or tournaments outside your bankroll can result in bigger swings and financial stress.
Lowering the Limits
Playing at lower limits can help stabilize your finances and restore your confidence.
Choose Minor Tournaments
Participating in tournaments with fewer players can reduce variance, as it is easier to achieve consistent results.
Controlling Expectations
Setting realistic expectations can avoid frustration. Remember that losing is part of the game and something that all players, even professionals, experience.
Learning to Deal with Tilt 😤
The tilt can aggravate the effects of variance. Recognize and control your emotions during a downswing is crucial to avoid mistakes.
Do Reviews and Study Constantly 📚
Reviewing your moves and studying continuously are essential practices. Ask for a second opinion on your analysis to identify mistakes you may not have noticed.
Conclusion
Understanding and managing variance is fundamental for any poker player who aspires to long-term success. Accepting that fluctuations are part of the game and implementing strategies to deal with them can transform your approach to poker. Remember, in poker, knowledge and preparation are your greatest allies against variance.
Join our community at Polarize Poker and learn from professionals how to deal with these challenges!
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